Azerbaijan Paris Agreement

The study includes historical data and forecasts on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The research defined a historical period by applying energy consumption data from 2010 to 2015. The 2030 forecast is based on Azerbaijan`s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2030 compared to a baseline year in 1990. The historical and projection periods are therefore 2010-2015 and 2016-2030. The wom scenario of total greenhouse gas emissions shows that total greenhouse gas emissions increase by 67% in Azerbaijan between 2010 and 2030. Therefore, Azerbaijan can only honour its commitment to the Paris Agreement if mitigation measures are implemented. In this study, the LEAP forecasting system for greenhouse gas emissions was used for several reasons. Initially, LEAP was created to model the conditions of the energy industry and analyze the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. This method has been used by nearly 200 nations and developed and developed countries use this technique to write reports for the UNFCCC (Stockholm Environment Institute, 2005). Second, unFCCC has proposed several modelling programs for non-Schedule I countries, which will be used in the reports.

Compared to other modeling programs, LEAP can perform robust analyses with less needed data (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2008). Third, while simple, LEAP provides robust analysis to compare a menu of policy decisions that allow developing countries to access strong planning mechanisms, previously reserved for the most developed countries. The volume of greenhouse gas emissions released by the energy sector decreased by about 20% in 2015 compared to the baseline year. This reduction can be explained by climate-related mitigation measures, such as the use of modern technologies, the registration of associated gases in the oil and gas sectors, and the shift from fuel oil to natural gas in the energy industry for heat and electricity generation. Azerbaijan`s commitment to the Paris Agreement calls for a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. However, modelling has shown that the objectives of the Paris Agreement cannot be achieved, given the current policy to combat climate change. Existing policies will only decrease by 29.7%, which means there is a 5.3% gap. The energy sector in Azerbaijan is considerable and growing.